Challenges and Opportunities and the Firing of Prime Minister Saacid

November 11, 2013

By Faisal A. Roble

In a 1959 address, John F. Kennedy said:  “When written in Chinese the word “crisis” is composed of two characters – one represents danger and the other represents opportunity.”  In the same vein, the crisis resulting from the embarrassing resignation of Yusur Abrar and the opportunities presented by the pending dismissal of Prime Minister Abdi Farah Shirdon (Saacid) of Somalia present both danger and opportunities.

As of November 11, 2013, credible reports are awash with information that President Hassan Sheikh has asked Prime Minister Saacid to resign from his post which the PM had occupied since November, 2012. This pending resignation was widely anticipated, and it is always better late than never.

If Prime Minister Saacid resigns as reported, and with him goes down his entire cabinet, this would be one of the most significant developments of direction in Hassan Shiekh’s one year old government.  If he refuses, to which the Prime Minister has every right, according to the Provisional Federal Constitution (PFC), then the decision shall be made by Parliament.  Constitutionally speaking, it is the Parliament that has the final say on this matter.

Mr. Saacid should not fight the President’s decision and should gracefully retire to his lush neighborhood in Nairobi, where his family owns a nice house.  He has not exercised the constitutional authority bestowed on his office and remained a lackey and subservient to a President who is grapping power more than his fair share per PFC. To say the least, he has disappointed thet nation that wanted an executive body where the PM runs the government, and the President remains no more than a ceremonial leader who sets the national vision for the country.  Both the President and the Prime Minister failed the nation.

As for the country, the purported change in the PM’s office comes at a time when the government in Mogadishu is faced with challenges and some potentially beneficial political issues.  Meandering through the labyrinths of danger and crisis depends on the political skill of President Hassan Sheikh’s.

Challenges 

The most challenging issue the government is currently faced with is the sudden resignation of the former chief of the county’s central bank, Yusur Abrar.  In her resignation letter dated October 30, 2013, she alleged that relatives of the President who regularly conduct business in the tattered capital city of Mogadishu had harassed her to release monies inappropriately.  She also claims that the President was well aware of her harassment by his relatives and seemed to condone.  There are also new rumors that the soon-to-be fired PM also harassed Ms. Abrar.

If not before, at least at the wake of selecting a new PM, the President must address Ms. Abrar’s resignation and clear the clouds surrounding her allegation.  Instead of dismissing such a weighty issue, at minimum, he needs to explain to the nation what mishaps have so far contributed to Ms. Abrar’s humiliating departure.

The resignation of the PM comes at a time when the EU and those who promised to finance Somalia’s “New Deal” proposal are showing doubts about the capacity and seriousness of Hassan Sheikh’s government in implementing all the policies and programs prescribed in the “New Deal.” According to Katrina Manson’s revealing article (see wardheernews.com), who extensively talked to diplomats in Nairobi, donors are losing confidence in Mogadishu.  If, so something credible must be shown to both Somalis and to the rest of the world to win them over.

Opportunities

Opportunities are also around the corner, that is, if the President is politically prudent enough to exploit them. The first opportunity lies in the selection of a new Prime Minister – A competent, independent and well respected professional individual to replace the inexperienced and unnecessarily obedient outgoing PM could come handy in gaining some level of national and international confidence.

To make the expected change more meaningful, the President must appoint a Prime Minister who is capable to exercise his constitutional mandate; in essence, the new PM must not be someone who is willing to remain tutelage to the President as Mr. Saacid has obediently been.

As to real-politick, the new Prime Minister should also appeal to those groups in Somalia who have felt wronged so far by the President’s narrowly organized administration.  In other words, the selection of the new PM must contribute to the regional balance in power sharing in the country.

The second opportunity presented by removing the PM from his office lies in the Mogadishu government’s ability to stick with and implement its recently signed agreement with the Jubbaland state.  Until recently, the Jubbland conflict was attributed to the outgoing PM’s sectarian politics, and many are saying now that Mr. Saacid did not serve the President well on this matter,

Now that the Jubbaland conflict is arrested, let us hope for good, partnering with Ahmed Islam, a veteran of Somalia’s religious movements and an insider about the military makeup of Al-shabab, could help Mogadishu militarily regain more territories under its control.  The new government to be formed should not let Mr. Saacid sabotage the peace process in Jubbaland.

A third area where President Hassan can exploit is the opportunity to winning over Puntland’s   leaders by not interfering with its upcoming presidential election.  So far, he is being accused of implicitly supporting and financing one or two candidates who have religious affiliation with his Dam-al-Jaded sect.

It pays off more if the President denounces any unnecessary interference with the election of Puntland and dispels such rumors that he himself is trying to sway the upcoming election.  He has more to gain by advocating the need for a fair and free election at the state level and wishing Puntlanders to exercise their democratic right.  That does it!

Fourth, in Mr. Saacid’s term, missed opportunities are numerous, one of which is helping the establishment of commissions as well as setting up the government structures in several regions including Bay and the Shabelle regions.

The next PM must iron out issues that are producing conflicts in the Shabelle regions while closely working with Parliament to set up commissions to effectuate state formation. The conflicts in these regions should not be left festering. A capable Prime Minister can help the President bring a level of compromise to these regions

A fifth factor that can boost the President’s waning national confidence and breath a dose of life back into his administration is facing off straight with the issue of AMISOM and its presence in Somalia.  Somalis are afraid of a hidden agenda associated with the duration of AMISOM soldiers in Somalia.

How long is AMISOM staying in Somalia? Five, ten, fifteen, twenty years?  So far, AMISON has done minimal in liberating the country. Despite that its soldiers have been fighting Al-Shabab in the streets of Mogadishu, AMISOM so far failed to secure even the most important thoroughfare in the City – Maka-al-Mukarama.

No one, including regional leaders, Parliamentarians, Members of the cabinet and eminent Somali personalities, is in the know about Somalia’s long term mortgage to AMISOM.  Not only does the enigma surrounding the AMISOM presence in Somalia erodes national confidence in the government, but it can be used as a propaganda machine by Al-Shabab.

Upon his presentation of the new PM to the Parliament, if and when that happens, the President and his new PM shall make a fresh start and speak to the mandate and timeline issue of AMISOM: (1) its extra-judicial deeds, especially raping Somali women and carrying out corruption that parallels with that of the government’s, (2) how soon it is planning to complete the current phase of fighting Al-Shabab and helping establish an inclusive national army (SNA); and (3) not authorizing any extension of AMISOM presence in the country prior to the 2016 presidential and district elections.

The President must lead a national conversation on this matter lest the country’s sovereignty is at stake.  No matter what, a small but motivated Somali national army is preferable to any number of foreign troops.  As such, the President must speak not to donors but to the Somali people, who if they start thrusting him, can move mountains let alone defeating about ten thousand rug-tag Al-Shabab militias who are honed down in Barawe.  It is the vision-lenses that helps Al-Shabab survive.

Such a clear and unambiguous conversation with the nation, coupled with picking a deserving Prime Minister, is perhaps all that President Hassan, otherwise a recalcitrant and uncharismatic leader, needs for a fresh start.  He along with his soon-to-be-seated new Prime Minister has three more years to do something right for this troubled nation.  Or else, the disappointment of the last twenty-two years will continue, while the leaders in Mogadishu loot brick by brick and dollar by dollar.

Faisal A. Roble
Email:faisalroble19@gmail.co