The Ripple of Recognition: Why Somalia is Apprehensive about the Idea of Somaliland Getting Recognised

By: Yusuf Habiib Hussien 

The Fractured Union: Setting a Historical Context The story of Somaliland and Somalia falls within the general context of colonialism in the Horn of Africa. Somaliland, formerly a protectorate of the British, and Somalia, formerly under Italian rule, united under high hopes in 1960 as one Somali Republic. That union, in fact, was actually laid on very weak foundations. Soon, sharp differences along the political, social, and economic dimensions between the two regions began to emerge, with tensions rising.

Somaliland was the peripheral power in this union, and through that came growing disgruntlement. The further desolation under the ruthless rule of Siad Barre worsened, conditions - his forces totally cracked down on northern Somaliland. Horrific violence characterizing the 1980s included the Bombing of Somaliland's capital Hargeisa by the forces of Barre. This gruesome act increased the urge of Somaliland for independence, and so after the fall of Barre's regime in 1991, Somaliland declared self-government.

The government, judiciary, and security forces have been run by Somaliland for the last three decades. Relatively stable at the expense of democratic governance, this has come at a cost: a lack of international recognition-that in itself has been a big stumbling block toward the development and integration of the country within the global community.

The recent diplomatic breakthroughs by Ethiopia in Somaliland represent something of a new turning point. Historically, Ethiopia always loomed large over the Horn of Africa and enjoys very complex relations with both Somalia and Somaliland. Recent agreements between Somaliland and Ethiopia hint toward changing regional dynamics.

The interests of Ethiopia in Somaliland are multilayered. Geographically, it offers access to the Red Sea via the Port of Berbera. This is one very important outlet for Ethiopia as a landlocked country. Economically, better relations with Somaliland provide an opportunity for more trade and investment opportunities, reinforcing Ethiopia's position as a regional hegemon.

These are not symbolic but real steps to what has always been the ultimate dream of Somaliland: international recognition. This was a notice, with backing from Ethiopia, that indeed Somaliland is a viable, independent state. In comparison to the continuing instability and internal strife of Somalia, this step signified that the breakaway republic was cogent and well-endowed with abilities to thrive on its own.

The Psychological Blow-Shattering Greater Somalia Somaliland recognition for Somalia is not just a political blow but is viewed as a huge psychological impact. One of the cornerstones for Somali nationalism has been the aspiration for Greater Somalia, a vision leading to a unified Somali nation covering all ethnic Somali territories. This means not only Somalia and Somaliland but also parts of Djibouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia.

Imminent recognition of Somaliland as a State snaps that dream and forces Somalia to acknowledge its territorial ambitions as, at best unattainable, and, in fact, its own territorial integrity threatened. Recognition of Somaliland would signal an official end to the notion that Somalia might yet reclaim all Somali-speaking regions and reunite them under one flag.

This is not only a loss in terms of territory but highly emotional and symbolic in nature as well. For many people in Somalia, the notion of Greater Somalia is linked to national pride and national identity. Thus, independence for Somaliland would be perceived as a defeat-and one not merely political but even existentially imposing upon Somalia a redefinition of its identity in a rather fundamentally new way.

Setting a Precedent for Autonomy and Independence: The Regional Implications Another reason this recognition instills fear in Somalia is because of the kind of precedence that can be set. If after a decade and more of de facto independence, Somaliland can have its status recognized internationally, this might spur other regions within Somalia to demand greater autonomy or even independence.

The fear is that this could be contagious-success by Somaliland, followed by further fragmentation. That can plunge the country into even deeper instability and render cohesiveness at both national identity and governance structure even more difficult than ever. In a nutshell, a truly fragmented Somalia with various regions seeking either to break away or assert greater autonomy is the ultimate nightmare facing the government in Mogadishu.

Road to Recognition: Challenges and Opportunities Despite the enormous progress that Somaliland has made towards recognition, challenges still remain. International recognition is always a pretty complex process and, often, a politically charged one. If anything, major players have been quite shy in giving any stamp of approval on Somaliland's independence, fearing it might set a precedent likely to destabilize other parts of the continent. These include the African Union and big global powers.

But it is from these agreements with Ethiopia, among other similar diplomacy, that a ray of hope beacons. In this respect, stability, commitment to democratic governance, and strategic importance are the virtues Somaliland is going to bank on, so as to position itself as a legitimate candidate for recognition. Growing support by regional powers, particularly Ethiopia, could gradually alter international consensus in favor of Somaliland.

This is a cautious moment of optimism for Somalilanders. Decades of disappointment and frustration now give way to a fresh sense of hope and possibility. The prospect of recognition is not seen only as a political victory, but also as a validation of their long fight for self-determination and independence.

Response of Somalia: A Defining Moment The response of Somalia to the diplomatic successes of Somaliland will mark the future course of both. In sum, the government in Mogadishu comes to a crossroads in its stance on Somaliland: it may further refuse recognition of Somaliland and thereby intensify tensions and war, or it may seek a more constructive path, perhaps through negotiations and a peaceful settlement.

The opposition option would be fraught with a serious danger not only of additional regional destabilization but also complete loss of international partners. On the other hand, in case of choice of dialogue and search for a mutually favorable solution, it would clear the path to much more stable and prosperous future for one and all in Somalia and Somaliland.

In this respect, it is also a moment for Somalia to introspect in terms of its national identity. The fact of recognition by Somaliland perhaps acts as the catalyst, making Somalia embark on a journey of introspection within, start consolidative efforts, governance reform, and reconciliation within itself. If Somalia disciplines itself from within and offers an expanded definition of self, it may well emerge more united and stronger, even when Somaliland goes its separate way.

A New Era for the Horn of Africa Recognition would cement many firsts in the Horn of Africa. For Somaliland, this is a realization of over three decades of struggle and hope, an opportunity to finally secure at least some international legitimacy that would be recognized. This is the moment of truth when Somalia must come to terms with its own lack of good options and the limits to which its territorial aspirations can be pursued.

The implications go deep in the region as Somaliland inches toward recognition. For a decade, with old dreams replaced by new realities, the Horn of Africa teeters on the threshold of a new era. It is now going to be incumbent upon Somalia and Somaliland to demonstrate equal wisdom, courage, and commitment to peace and stability in this new environment. Decisions taken in the coming months and years would determine the course of this region for generations to come.