By Ali H Abdulla
I
have an acquaintance who used to be a colonel in the Somali Army in its
days of glory. We recently talked about AMISOM and its purported
contribution to the stabilization of Somalia. As we all know, these
forces are drawn from countries ruled by corrupt and dictatorial
regimes. Some of the AMISOM member countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya
have had rocky relations with Somalia and may have their own hidden
agendas.
If you are shocked at the Russian takeover of the Crimea,
wait a few years for an Ethiopian takeover of a slice of Somali that
will give it access to the vast Indian Ocean. The thousands of visible
Ethiopian forces in AMISOM are supplemented with thousands disguised as
poor migrants who lurk in most urban centers in Somalia waiting for a
Crimean moment.
The conversation with the ex-colonel mushroomed
into areas such as the financial incentives that these alien forces
receive as compensation for the risks involved in working in such a
dangerous environment.
We
took a calculator and started multiplying the numbers. To our
astonishment and bewilderment, we came up with an astronomical figure
even when we tried to minimize the number of these forces. If we base
our calculation on an average force of 20,000 and assume that each
soldier costs the generous International community $1,200 a month,
AMISOM countries receive $288 million annually, a figure that probably
exceeds the annual budget of the Somali government. A large portion of
these funds will not benefit the foot soldiers but will surely be
diverted into the coffers of the dictatorial regimes.
Given these
ridiculous figures, one should not be surprised at the recent frank
assertion of an AMISOM soldier from Burundi who inadvertently exposed
the undeclared strategy of AMISOM member countries of perpetuating the
miserable status quo in Somalia. It seems that these countries look at
the Al-Shabaab as a goose that lays golden eggs for them, and they
should not be expected to kill such a valuable goose. Another 10 years
of hide and seek with the Al-Shabaab can only fill the coffers of these
regimes with the funds required to extend their years in office.
Whether the donors are in collusion with these corrupt regimes or not
is not clear. But one thing is for sure: Western countries have no
desire to rebuild a strong Somali army that would cost them a fraction
of the lavish funds that they spend on AMSIOM forces. The most
plausible explanation of this attitude is probably their wariness that a
resurgent strong Somali Army could ignite another war with its
neighbors over disputed territories such as the Ogaden and NFD, Somali
territories bequeathed illegally to Ethiopia and Kenya respectively by
the British colonialists.
The current situation in Somalia can
only lead towards further fragmentation of the country into clan-based
enclaves, each with its own clan militia. All of these clan militias
probably get their weapons and ammunition from the same source: Some
AMISOM member countries. Even the Al-Shabaab probably deals with the
same source directly or indirectly. UN monitors point the finger at the
Somali government as a potential supplier of weapons to Al-shabaab, and
ignore the possibility that AMISOM itself may be involved as well.
Upon
failing to land jobs in their country, Somali youth who graduate from
local schools and colleges risk their lives in the Sahara desert and the
Mediterranean Sea to reach Europe. Instead of recruiting illiterate
nomads into the largely undisciplined Somali Army, the Somali government
could have used these educated youth as the base for a professional
army that is drawn from all Somali regions. Such an army could take on
the misguided Al-Shabaab whose political naivety and extremist agenda
will surely destroy Somalia and lead to its eventual domination by its
unfriendly and ambitious neighbors.
Let us hope that the new Prime
Minister has the courage to step outside Mogadishu and start reaching
out to all the Somali regions that believe in Somali Unity and that can
help him rebuild the legendary Somali Army. Federal States are supposed
to maintain local police forces and not mechanized armed forces. The
recent refusal of Ahlu Suna to integrate their clan-militia into the
Somali Army is an indication of the difficulty that the Somali
Government will face in the future when dealing with areas like Puntland
and Somaliland. The UN monitors should start looking closely at the
source of weapons for these rogue tribal enclaves since they can
potentially destabilize Somalia even when the Al-Shabaab has been
defeated. These lands and others in the making pose a greater threat to
Somali integrity and Unity than the Al-Shabaab alone.
Comments
Post a Comment