The crisis in crisis management in Somalia
by Liban Obsiye & Sakariye Hussein
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
What crisis?
The Somali government is in trouble. Again. The Turkish government,
which has backed the Somali government with direct cash aid, has made it
clear that this assistance stopped at the end of 2013 and that there
were no clear plans to resume it in 2014. However, the Turkish
government’s Cooperation and Coordination Agency reassured the Somali
people that their projects in Somalia would continue unaffected. What
does this mean? Nothing by the response of Villa Somalia which has yet
to officially accept that it was perhaps their silence on the corruption
allegations made by Yusur Abraar, the last Somali Central bank
governor, against the administration that has led to the freeze in trust
between the European Union, Turkey and Villa Somalia. When Villa
Somalia did appear to act it was too late, poorly coordinated and simply
aimed at character assassination and the defence of the President who
was painted as totally innocent and as a result out of touch with the
everyday administration of his government.
Listeners of Mogadishu radio, the public broadcaster, can be forgiven
for their confusion as their President replied from his holiday spot in
Turkey where his family has relocated since he took office, to the
rumours that he had died while undergoing treatment. To prove that the
rumours were “baseless” as he claimed, he sought to reassure his
listeners, the general public and international donors by proudly
stating that, “I have not even taken a single aspirin.” This is most
likely true but what is certain was that he was alive after the
completion of the radio interview. The key problem with this whole
embarrassing saga, according to sources close to the President, was that
the Presidents team made up the story of a health check-up to disguise
the fact that he was going to see his family on a short break. They
thought that Hassan Sheikh’s holiday would look insensitive at a time of
great insecurity and poverty. However, this backfired through the
rumours of his death which could have easily caused a power vacuum and
thrown Somalia back into a state of war and anarchy.
Alshabaab’s deadly attack on the Presidential Palace last week which
their spokesman stated missed the President only by a few minutes was a
global shock. It made headlines all over the world and witnesses have
spoken of their horror as the armed Alshabaab members casually walked
around the compound after blasting their way in searching for the
President to kill or kidnap. The attack claimed many lives and the
President defiantly spoke of the war he will wage against a desperate
dying animal on the verge of defeat. An animal on the verge of defeat
does not usually penetrate the most secure areas of the capital let
alone pass through multiple check points staffed by AMISOM and Somali
army officers paid handsomely to protect the only institution that
actually appears to exist in Somalia: the Presidency. Despite his
combative tone, the President’s voice when delivering his long rambling
speech was shaky and incoherent. The content seemed poorly thought out.
Instead of reassuring the public and other international stakeholders
the speech made it clear that without tackling security and AlShabaab
first, nothing else would succeed including investment in infrastructure
and other development projects.
The President of Somalia’s fatalistic analysis was in line with what
his security Minister Abdikarim Hussein Guled had told the world in a
public conference which he called with the media a few hours before him.
The Minister stated that AlShabaab can kill absolutely anyone and the
public should stand together to tackle them. However, his alarmist
speech has been interpreted as his Ministry being unable to defend the
Somali people especially those in Mogadishu to the point where now many
are asking him to resign. The institutional failures and the foreseeable
challenge of tackling AlShabaab militarily and legally was disclosed by
the President in his speech when he emotionally publicised that his
government will no longer listen to the traditional tribal elders who
release the AlShabaab suspects they arrest without undertaking a proper
investigation. Was this a necessary disclosure? All it did was point to
the weakness of institutions and the overarching power of tribe in
Somali politics.
On Tuesday (25th February) Hassan Sheikh gave a speech denouncing
AlShabaab and reiterating his message that he, his government and their
partners on the ground will be beginning an offensive against them.
Watch out AlShabaab we are coming is the best possible warning they
could have had in advance of any offensive. More amusingly every word
the President said was translated to Nicholas Kay, the UN Special
Representative for Somalia, who stood large behind him throughout the
speech. This not only gives the clearest message that the offensive is
not only Somali led but also that without international backing,
guidance and support Hassan Sheikh and his government are nothing more
than the current tenants of Villa Somalia. This is exactly the Western
puppet image AlShabaab has painted throughout their campaign against
Hassan Sheikh’s government.
AlShabaab is far more complex and clever than most observers and
critics give them credit for. On the outside it is easy to support
President Hassan Sheikh’s regular criticism of them as an aimless,
confused band of murderers. However, with every attack in Mogadishu,
they have benefitted from the government forces over reaction in
arresting innocent civilians, torturing them and regularly abusing them
until an “influential tribal or government member” can rescue them
according to a recent victim. Those that are found innocent or guilty
have an equal chance of disappearing or being released without
explanation or compensation if they do not have a powerful advocate in
government. The wrath with which government forces deals with innocent
civilians and those they suspect of terrorism, especially after attacks,
undermines any pretence of justice, fair trial or anything that would
give the government any more points for moral conduct than AlShabaab.
The effect of this is an erosion of trust of government and its
capabilities to protect and provide for the citizens and an
understanding that AlShabaab is always present even if in disguise.
The most frustrating aspect of government in Somalia is that the core
members of the administration both in political and administrative
roles live in a bubble that does not seem to burst even after what most
reasonable people would see as catastrophic failures. Villa Somalia, the
only genuine existing Somali institutions as it is a building which
houses policy makers and administrators, has remarkably been inept at
grasping the importance of perception and symbolism in the politics of a
tribally divided nation surviving on aid. More frustratingly, it is
members of the core executive, including the President, and the civil
service and special advisers, who continue to create crisis’s with their
poor communication, silence and ill thought out policy choices.
Managing crisis
There is no government in the world that does not suffer setbacks or
has to deal with crisis regularly. Think of President George Bush
Junior’s shocked face when he was first notified of the twin towers
attack whilst reading to children in a primary school. Think of the
daily battles of the Greek government which has had to live with
austerity measure after austerity measure forced down their throat by
the IMF and the European Union member states as punishment for not
managing their public finances. Government and the authority and
leadership that accompany it are a challenge in themselves that if
exercised wrongfully can cause and sustain a crisis as was illustrated
in Ukraine this week.
The Somali government does not have the institutional capacity of any
of these nations at present but it is wrong to think you always need it
to manage a crisis effectively. Even with the best systems in place,
some of the greatest PR companies around the corner and institutional
funding for implementation of change on the ground, the American
president Barack Obama is struggling with managing the diplomatic and
political fallout of the NSA spying revelations. Instead of focusing on
institutional deficiencies when it comes to crisis management, the
Somali government should be exploring ways to and avenues through which
to communicate early and clearly to any future setbacks.
Yusur Abraar is a ghost haunting the Somali government and this week
(Tuesday 25th February) the former Somali Minister of Foreign Affairs
Mrs. Fawzia Adam strongly denied allegations made against her that she
pressurised Yusur to open an account in Dubai for the purposes of
laundering public finances. Regardless of the validity of this
allegations perceptions clearly count as much as evidence in a country
with a historical precedence for corruption, poor leadership and a lack
of accountability across government and institutions.
Reuters and the
London based Financial Times, both media giants with global reach and
influence, reported the story through the use of a letter drafted by the
former and the first female Somali Central banker. Instead of replying
early, Villa Somalia kept quiet and allowed a few critical MP’s to
slander Yusur in an attempt to dent her credibility even using court
documents obtained from America alleging that she had gone bankrupt.
This issue would have been far better resolved and firmly buried had the
President simply acknowledged her concerns and ordered an independent
inquiry and then later relied on the outcomes to remedy it. How much
more confidence would this have given to Yusur and the partner nations,
including the most patient Turkey, who now are wary of giving any aid
directly to the Somali state through Villa Somalia? Would this not have
communicated the government’s zero tolerance rhetorical commitments
better than the regular sound bites that are heard from the President
and the executive on fighting corruption?
When dealing with crisis that are by their very nature sudden and
catastrophic, the Somali government, especially its executive leadership
needs to plan better, consult and put in place mechanisms which enhance
public trust and confidence in them and the institutions they aspire to
create. Where the government has made mistakes it simply needs to own
up but where it is sensitive, especially with regards to security and
the institutional weaknesses and disparities when dealing with the likes
of Alshabaab, they need to be discreet. This is because although the
President meant well and was angered by the interference of tribe in the
process of arrest and prosecution of suspected terror suspects, by
disclosing it he has undermined his government’s efforts in the eyes of
the people and laid bare their weaknesses. In moments of difficulty the
public look for leadership and guidance and if those tasked with
fulfilling this are incoherent, fearful and perceived as incompetent
public worry will only escalate. The different messages from various
Ministers falling over each other to comment further deepen the crisis.
President Hassan Sheikh appears to have arrived at the wrong time in
history for his style of gentlemanly politics. The president is capable
and understands the challenges ahead and the importance of public
perception. However, to manage a crisis he needs the most qualified
people advising him on the way forward and alternative policy solutions.
At present the very 4.5 tribal system with which Somalia is governed
can pose a challenge of independence on any inquiry commissioned by the
President. Indeed his opponents would always say that any inquiry would
be politically motivated but to lead inevitably is to choose and the
President should always side with reform and transparency in times of
crisis. Sheikh Sharif, Hassan’s predecessor, was brilliant at crisis
management and reassuring the public that he was working in their
interests. He embraced them and regularly mingled with them even when
AlShabaab controlled most of Mogadishu. This is the type of crisis
leadership and confidence building the Somali people seeks from the
President today.
Crisis management is not academic but an art that only improves with
practice. President Hassan Sheikh must learn from the attack on his home
which was intended to get rid of him.
He must communicate early and
appropriately action his commitment to tackling corruption through
promotion of greater transparency in all government matters and as well
as streamline and unify the governments positions through the
appointment and use of only one official spokesperson for all the key
Ministries communication with the public. Despite the constraints of
4.5, the President must further summon the courage to dispose of all
those incompetent and corrupt officials that are nothing more than rent
seekers serving themselves and their tribal elders’ interests when they
should be working towards rebuilding their nation. Ironically this show
of force and steely determination may eventually lead to the creation
and adherence to a collective cabinet responsibility which promotes the
government’s agenda for change and Hassan Sheikh’s hopes for reform and
progress.
In managing crisis the President theoretically is not alone and
should work with partners who are willing to assist such as AMISOM and
the UN. However, ultimately responsibility to lead through crisis and to
create a better Somalia rests with him. The achievement of Hassan
Sheikh’s treasured six pillar plans without first mastering the art of
leading through difficulty which is a must for any Somali leader of any
capacity, is futile.
The authors welcome feedback. Please contact them via the below means:
Liban Obsiye: libanbakaa@hotmail.com @LibanObsiye (Twitter).
Sakariye Hussein: Sakariya100@hotmail.com @Jawdeer (Twitter).
Liban Obsiye: libanbakaa@hotmail.com @LibanObsiye (Twitter).
Sakariye Hussein: Sakariya100@hotmail.com @Jawdeer (Twitter).
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